Fidelity Says Bitcoin’s Current Cycle Is Maturing — A New Wave May Follow
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer suggests Bitcoin's current growth wave is maturing, potentially leading to a sixth wave projected to grow about five times.Summary
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, analyzed Bitcoin's historical growth using a wave-development model, suggesting the current cycle, which began in 2022 near $16,603, appears mature and is currently in its fifth wave, potentially peaking around $151,360.
Historically, each new growth cycle expands with smaller magnitude but lasts longer. Timmer projects the upcoming sixth wave might grow approximately five times over 168 weeks, though the exact starting point is unknown, with a potential support level near $80,554. He remains optimistic about year-end performance due to monetary easing.
This outlook contrasts with historical data showing poor Bitcoin performance during midterm election years (like 2026), which saw drawdowns of 60% to 75% in previous cycles. Axis COO Jimmy Xue also anticipates stabilization before a medium-term bullish setup for Q1 2026 as rate cuts cycle through global liquidity.
(Source：BeInCrypto)