Bitcoin stalled at $95k after a hidden Fed warning quietly derailed the post-cut celebration
Bitcoin retreated from $95k after the Fed delivered an expected rate cut but signaled a cautious, less aggressive easing path for 2026.Summary
Bitcoin failed to sustain a push toward $95,000 and retreated to the $92,000 zone following the Federal Reserve's expected quarter-point rate cut. The rally was derailed because Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed a mixed-to-bearish stance for 2026, indicating the committee is positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves, refusing to validate a faster easing cycle.
On-chain data reveals structural fragility, with Bitcoin trading within a range bounded by the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($102,700) and the True Market Mean ($81,300). Unrealized losses are expanding, realized losses are climbing to post-FTX collapse highs, and long-term holders are actively taking profits (over $1 billion per day during the bounce), anchoring any rally attempt.
Furthermore, demand indicators are weak: US Bitcoin ETFs saw cooling net flows, spot relative volume is low, and futures markets show subdued speculative positioning. The Fed's guidance removed a macro tailwind, and the fragile internal structure prevents momentum; the next move higher requires either a dovish Fed surprise in January or a significant reset in on-chain dynamics.
(Source：CryptoSlate)