Conflicted Fed cuts rates but Bitcoin’s ‘fragile range’ pins BTC under $100K
Despite the Fed's expected rate cut, Bitcoin remains range-bound below $100K due to structural on-chain tensions and profit-taking.Summary
The US Federal Reserve implemented its third 25-basis-point interest rate cut, aligning with expectations, but a hawkish tone from the divided Fed suggests concerns over inflation resilience and slower future rate cuts.
Bitcoin remains structurally trapped below $100,000, constrained between a short-term cost basis of $102,700 and the "True Market Mean" of $81,300, according to Glassnode. This fragile range is exacerbated by weakening on-chain conditions, surging realized losses reaching $555 million/day (highest since the FTX collapse), and heavy profit-taking from long-term holders, preventing a reclaim of key resistance levels.
Furthermore, the recent price rally appears spot-led rather than driven by leverage, as Bitcoin's open interest has declined. Analysts suggest that sustained bullish momentum requires rising leveraged positioning, and the current spot-driven rally may struggle if expectations for future rate cuts diminish.
(Source：Cointelegraph)