How a “Jellyfish UFO video” and PDF fueled a controversial 1,700% market explosion

A Polymarket prediction contract, betting on whether President Trump would declassify UFO files in 2025, experienced a dramatic 1,700% surge in odds, moving from 5.5% to nearly 90% in one day. The catalyst was a resolution proposal filed with UMA Protocol, the decentralized oracle settling disputes, arguing that a September AARO document titled “AARO and the Declassification Process” satisfied the contract’s terms. This document included a screenshot from the “jellyfish video” and mentioned newly declassified content. The proposal argued that since AARO operates under the Department of Defense, the document constituted declassification. This rapid spike raised concerns about market manipulation, suggesting traders may have front-ran the governance outcome or that UMA token holders orchestrated a squeeze using their voting power. The dispute highlights the tension between resolving outcomes based on official documentation versus the subjective interpretation of ambiguous contract language by token-weighted governance votes, contrasting with previous insider trading episodes like the AlphaRaccoon case.

(Source：CryptoSlate)