‘Elite’ traders hunt dopamine-seeking retail on prediction markets: 10x Research

A report from 10x Research indicates that prediction markets have become a new battleground where informed, elite traders profit by exploiting casual retail bettors who trade based on "dopamine and narrative" rather than discipline. Blockchain data from Polymarket shows that only about 16.7% of wallets are profitable, with the remaining 83% incurring losses. This structure incentivizes professional desks to capture the spread and "misinformation asymmetry." Furthermore, the flawless win rates of some users, like "pony-pony" and "AlphaRaccoon," are raising concerns about potential insider trading. Separately, a bug was discovered in how some third-party data dashboards interpret Polymarket data, leading to the double-counting and inflation of trading volume metrics, though this is attributed to interpretation errors rather than wash trading.

(Source：Cointelegraph)