Polymarket trading figures are being ‘double-counted ’: Paradigm
A Paradigm researcher found that Polymarket's reported trading volume is often inflated due to a data bug causing trade events to be double-counted.Summary
A researcher at the venture capital firm Paradigm, named Storm, revealed that major dashboards are significantly overstating Polymarket's trading activity and volume due to a data bug. This error stems from Polymarket's on-chain data containing redundant representations of each trade, specifically emitting separate "OrderFilled" events for both makers and takers of a trade, which describe the same transaction. Many dashboards incorrectly aggregate these events, effectively counting the same volume twice. This bug inflates both notional volume and cashflow volume metrics commonly used for prediction markets. The discovery casts doubt on recent high valuations for Polymarket, including a $9 billion valuation from ICE based on reported $25 billion in trading volume, and a reported $3.7 billion in November volume that might be double the actual figure. The researcher concluded that as prediction markets mature, the industry needs to converge on consistent and transparent reporting standards.
(Source：Cointelegraph)