10x Research founder warns of 60% Bitcoin drop tied to 2026 US midterms

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, has forecasted a potential 60% drawdown for Bitcoin, correlating this drop with the 2026 US midterm election cycle. Thielen cited historical midterm cycles that preceded significant Bitcoin selloffs and suggested that current weakening institutional flows and bearish on-chain signals could exacerbate any downside. He noted that such a drop typically occurs unless inflation prints lower or the Federal Reserve adopts a significantly dovish stance, potentially under a new Fed chair. Furthermore, Thielen pointed out that newer wallets are currently underwater by 10% to 20%, suggesting eventual forced selling.

(Source：Crypto Briefing)