Bitcoin Market Echoes Early 2022 as Onchain Stress Mounts: Glassnode
Glassnode reports current Bitcoin market stress, marked by supply in loss and weakening demand, mirrors early 2022 conditions.Summary
Glassnode's latest report indicates that current Bitcoin market conditions resemble the beginning of the 2022 bear market due to mounting on-chain stress. Key indicators include the spot price falling below the 0.75 cost basis quantile, meaning over 25% of BTC supply is underwater, similar to the 2022 breakdown. Furthermore, the total supply in loss has reached 7.1 million BTC, aligning with early 2022 levels.
Despite these pressures, realized cap net change remains positive but is significantly lower than summer peaks. Off-chain trends show weakening demand, with Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT experiencing consecutive weeks of outflows totaling over $2.7 billion. Spot market activity is also deteriorating, evidenced by negative Binance Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) and a cooling Coinbase premium.
Derivatives data suggests reduced risk appetite, as open interest has fallen, funding rates are neutral, and the funding premium has cooled. Traders are cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting, with options market activity showing selling of upside rather than chasing breakouts.
(Source：CoinDesk)