Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?

Bitcoin's recent price action and on-chain structure are showing increasing resemblance to the first quarter of 2022, which preceded a major bear market. Analysis from Glassnode indicates that BTC found temporary support near its True Market Mean ($81,500), a level historically separating mild bearish phases from deep corrections. A similar pattern is seen in the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model, where the price is below the 0.75 quantile, indicating over 25% of supply is underwater and creating a fragile market balance sensitive to macro shocks.

Furthermore, technical indicators suggest downside risk. Bitcoin's recovery attempt was rejected around $93,000, which aligns with the upper boundary of a bear flag pattern on the two-day chart. A confirmed break below the flag's lower boundary at $91,000 could validate this pattern, targeting a price of $68,150, which represents a 27% drop from current levels. Momentum indicators like the RSI remaining sluggish at 40 also favor the downside.

The bearish outlook would be invalidated if bulls manage to push the price above $96,000, supported by positive sentiment metrics like the Coinbase Premium.

(Source：Cointelegraph)