Bitcoin’s rally now hinges on “shadow chair” bet that demands violent, immediate dollar collapse

Bitcoin's recent rebound is linked to increased market probability of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, which has weakened the dollar and eased financial conditions, aligning with historical risk-on sentiment for crypto. A secondary catalyst is the speculation surrounding President Trump's potential nominee for Fed Chair in early 2026, ahead of Powell's term end. Kevin Hassett is viewed as the leading candidate, whose potential dovish stance could further pressure the dollar. The market is currently trading on the "shadow chair" effect, where expectations about a successor's bias influence curves and the dollar, even though the current committee remains in control until 2026. The primary driver remains the near-term macro channel: if rate cut odds rise, the dollar will soften, supporting BTC; conversely, hawkish surprises will pressure risk assets. Sustained ETF inflows are needed to validate the rebound beyond this macro impulse.

(Source：CryptoSlate)