BTC Dipped Below 'Fair Value' for First Time in 2 Years, History Says 132% Gains Next 12 Months

Bitcoin briefly traded below its Metcalfe value—a measure of fundamental network worth based on user activity—for the first time in nearly two years, according to economist Timothy Peterson. This dip, which coincided with a 36% pullback to around $80,000, suggests that speculative excess and leverage have been largely flushed out, marking a late stage in market resets, though not necessarily the absolute bottom. Historically, when Bitcoin trades below this network value benchmark, forward returns have been strongly positive, with a 96% success rate and an average gain of 132% over the following twelve months. Furthermore, long-term holder (LTH) supply has recently increased by about 50,000 BTC, indicating that selling pressure is diminishing as coins mature into stable hands, providing a meaningful tailwind for future price action.

(Source：CoinDesk)