A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin is at a critical inflection point as the Federal Reserve nears the end of Quantitative Tightening, historically preceding bullish rallies.Summary
Bitcoin's price is at a crucial macroeconomic inflection point as the Federal Reserve is expected to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), with a December rate cut almost certain. Historically, when the Fed's balance sheet stops contracting, Bitcoin experiences significant bullish catalysts, as seen in 2010, 2012, and 2019. However, recent price stagnation suggests liquidity alone is insufficient, indicating Bitcoin is increasingly correlated with traditional business cycle indicators like the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The Copper-to-Gold ratio, a leading indicator for PMI, appears to be bottoming, suggesting the business cycle may soon turn favorable. The confluence of potentially easing monetary policy and a turning business cycle positions Bitcoin for a significant trend reversal after recent underperformance.
(Source：Bitcoin Magazine)