Bitcoin valuation metric projects 96% chance of BTC price recovery in 2026
Bitcoin dropping below its network value historically precedes positive one-year returns, suggesting a 96% chance of recovery by 2026.Summary
Bitcoin's price has fallen 31.4% from its all-time high, dropping below its Metcalfe Value (theoretical fair price based on network activity) for the first time in two years. Economist Timothy Peterson notes that historically, when the price falls below this metric, performance is positive one year later 96% of the time, indicating leverage has been removed and the speculative bubble has deflated. Previous instances in 2019, 2020, and early 2023 preceded significant rallies. Furthermore, network adoption remains strong, evidenced by increased transactions and a rise in long-term holders. Supporting this outlook, spot market data shows the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has turned positive, signaling renewed buying aggression. A convergence of factors, including institutional buying and potential Fed easing, could drive BTC back above the Metcalfe trendline by mid-2026.
(Source：Cointelegraph)