Bernstein says Robinhood wants to leverage distribution edge for greater prediction-market share as Coinbase readies December move

Research firm Bernstein suggests Robinhood intends to significantly increase its share of the prediction market revenue pool by launching its own CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange through a joint venture with Susquehanna, leveraging its existing distribution advantage. Robinhood already drives over 50% of Kalshi's volume and is seeing rapid growth in this sector. This competitive expansion coincides with expectations that Coinbase will introduce its own prediction market product in December, though the structure remains unclear. Furthermore, rival Polymarket is re-entering the U.S. market after securing an amended CFTC designation. Bernstein sees an emerging split between liquidity platforms like Kalshi/Polymarket and distribution channels like Robinhood, which possesses the "perfect demographic and product market fit" for aggressive revenue capture.

(Source：The Block)