Citigroup Warns of Bitcoin Halving-Season Chill as Prices Sink, ETF Outflows Grow

Citigroup noted that the October crypto futures wipeout severely damaged market sentiment, leading to nearly $4 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows and erasing year-to-date gains. With fresh inflows stalling, Bitcoin is trading closer to the average cost basis of ETF holders, aligning with Citi's bear-case outlook rather than its base scenario. Analyst Alex Saunders pointed out that risk appetite has waned due to macro stress, and the market is entering the historically weak second year of the halving cycle, evidenced by older supply moving and large wallets trimming positions. While interest remains, long-term holders are defensive, and new buyers are hesitant without clear catalysts like an equity rebound or progress on digital-asset legislation. Citi's bear case suggests Bitcoin could approach $82,000, but they maintain a 12-month target of $181,000, contingent on regulatory breakthroughs next year restoring demand.

(Source：CoinDesk)