Bitcoin Price Dip Or New Bear Market?
Bitcoin's recent price weakness below six figures suggests a shift toward a corrective phase, making aggressive dip-buying risky.Summary
The Bitcoin price has shown clear weakness, dropping below the $100,000 mark, leading to a recalibration where the probability of retesting new all-time highs in the near term has fallen below 50%. The analysis suggests the market is moving toward a deeper corrective phase rather than maintaining trending strength, meaning buying every dip may be suboptimal.
Key technical indicators, such as the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, acted as resistance in previous cycles during pullbacks. Crucial levels to watch now include the network's realized cost basis, clustering around the mid-$50,000s, and the 200-Week Moving Average, which historically signals strong accumulation zones when the price trades near them.
On-chain signals indicate the market has not yet capitulated; Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple is rising as price falls, suggesting distribution by experienced holders, and funding rates are not showing the extreme negative bias typical of major cycle bottoms. To invalidate the bear case, Bitcoin must sustain reclamation above key structural levels, including $100,000, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, and the 350-day moving average. Until then, a defensive strategy of waiting for confluence before scaling in is recommended.
(Source：Bitcoin Magazine)