Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Can Drop to $80K But is at Levels Preceding FTX-Era Extremes
Bitcoin is experiencing deep momentum breaks, with realized losses hitting levels seen before the FTX collapse, suggesting a potential short-term bottom.Summary
Bitcoin is exhibiting one of the deepest momentum breaks of the current cycle, with on-chain data from Glassnode showing realized losses comparable to the November 2022 FTX capitulation. This spike is primarily driven by short-term holders (bought within 90 days) selling as BTC falls below its 200-day moving average. Market structure indicators further highlight the severity, as BTC is trading more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average—a displacement seen only three times in the past decade during major crashes (Nov 2018, Mar 2020, Jun 2022). This pattern involves sharp spot selling, collapsing funding rates, and retreating marginal buyers. With short-term holders washed out and sentiment extremely fearful, market positioning is nearing levels historically associated with short-term bottoms, although traders caution that elevated volatility is likely without a clear macro catalyst.
(Source：CoinDesk)