Asia Morning Briefing: Market Turns Defensive as BTC Loses Its Bid

The cryptocurrency market is exhibiting a defensive structure as the steady buying bid that supported prices earlier in the year diminishes, according to CryptoQuant, which notes that the cycle's core demand wave has passed due to slowing ETF accumulation and evaporating institutional buying. This suggests upside is limited, likely stalling below the 365-day moving average until new demand emerges. Traders on Polymarket are positioning for a drop toward $85,000. Glassnode data indicates short-term holders are realizing losses rapidly, ETF flows are negative, and derivatives markets are in risk-off mode, with options traders favoring puts. The market's next critical test is the Active Investor cost basis near $88,600; a sustained move below this level could signal bearish momentum taking control, with the True Market Mean around $82,000 representing a potential shift into a bear market structure similar to 2022-2023. Bitcoin is currently trading around $92,000, while Ether tracks its defensive tone. Separately, strong Nvidia earnings calmed broader markets, briefly pushing Bitcoin back above $90,000.

(Source：CoinDesk)