Bitcoin Price (BTC) Prediction: Backwardation Bottoming Sign?
CoinDesk
Bitcoin entering backwardation, where futures trade below spot, signals market stress often preceding bottoms.Summary
Bitcoin has recently entered backwardation, a rare derivatives market structure where futures prices trade below the spot price, indicating stress, extreme fear, or heavy hedging, following a drop of up to 30% from its all-time high. This pattern has historically coincided with major or local market bottoms, such as in November 2022 (FTX collapse), March 2023 (SVB/USDC depeg), and August 2023. The three-month annualized rolling basis has compressed to about 4%, its lowest since November 2022, showing a massive drop in demand for leveraged long exposure. Experts suggest this setup often signals a contrarian buy moment, predicting either a swift reversal as panic subsides or a final flush that marks the ultimate bottom.
(Source：CoinDesk)