TD Cowen sees 170% upside for Strategy shares despite mNAV dip, bitcoin battering

TD Cowen analysts, Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete, reaffirmed their $585 price target for Strategy (MSTR), suggesting approximately 170% upside from its current price near $194, even though the stock recently traded below its net asset value (mNAV) of 1 and Bitcoin experienced a significant drop. The analysts attribute the stock weakness to market volatility rather than any fundamental change in Strategy's ability to accumulate more Bitcoin. Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor recently increased holdings to 649,870 BTC. Cowen models Strategy holding 815,000 BTC by the end of 2027, which aligns with their price target based on base-case assumptions. Potential tailwinds cited include possible inclusion in the S&P 500 in December 2025 and increased regulatory clarity for Bitcoin. While the company's software offerings are an incremental contributor, Cowen views Strategy as best suited for long-term investors expecting Bitcoin to outperform other assets.

(Source：The Block)