Why Bitcoin Price (BTC) Might Be Bottoming: Negative Skew Hits Late-2022 Levels
Bitcoin exhibits negative performance skew against the Nasdaq, mirroring late-2022 bottoming conditions, suggesting investor exhaustion.Summary
Bitcoin has been frustratingly correlated with the Nasdaq 100, plunging sharply when tech stocks fall but failing to match rallies, resulting in the Nasdaq gaining 20% YTD while Bitcoin is up only 3%. Jasper De Maere of Wintermute attributes this not to a correlation breakdown, but to "asymmetry" or negative performance skew, where BTC reacts more sharply to risk-off events than risk-on ones. This negative skew has fallen to levels last seen near the bottom of the 2022 bear market. Reasons for this include a loss of institutional and retail speculative appetite for Bitcoin as stock interest remains high, alongside liquidity issues like slowed ETF inflows and plateaued stablecoin issuance. Historically, this level of negative asymmetry signals exhaustion near market bottoms rather than strength, suggesting a potential turning point for BTC.
(Source：CoinDesk)