Bank Rails vs DeFi: How $3.6T of “Digital Cash” Bypasses Bitcoin and Ethereum
Wall Street forecasts up to $3.6T in digital cash by 2030 via stablecoins and tokenized deposits, contingent on regulation and bank adoption.Summary
Major financial institutions like BNY Mellon and Citi project that up to $3.6 trillion in digital cash, split between stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits, could exist by 2030, fundamentally changing market plumbing. Achieving this scale requires three non-negotiable ingredients: regulated issuance (like the proposed GENIUS Act), broad participation from large banks issuing tokenized deposits, and seamless, T+0 interoperability between blockchain rails and existing banking systems. Success hinges on compliance infrastructure (KYC/AML) and frictionless user experience, avoiding restrictive models like the Bank of England's caps. The impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum liquidity is bifurcated: if a significant portion of this digital cash remains on open, permissionless chains, it could significantly deepen liquidity for crypto markets. However, if this new infrastructure leads to permissioned, bank-walled gardens with strict access controls, much of the $3.6 trillion will bypass Bitcoin and Ethereum entirely, serving only as internal plumbing rather than fuel for the open crypto ecosystem.
(Source：CryptoSlate)