Prediction Market News: U.S. Government Shutdown Days From Ending as Health Care Dispute Continues
Prediction markets indicate a 96% chance the U.S. government shutdown ends soon, despite an ongoing fight over ACA subsidies.Summary
Prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, show high confidence, around 96% probability, that the record-long U.S. government shutdown will end between November 12 and 15, following the Senate's bipartisan vote to fund the government through January 30. This funding bill reverses layoffs and restores back pay but leaves the politically volatile issue of expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies unresolved, with a potential Senate vote scheduled for December. While the government reopening seems imminent, the dispute over ACA relief continues, with some Republicans pressuring Speaker Mike Johnson to act. Furthermore, prediction markets are already pricing in the political fallout, suggesting Republicans have a 44% chance of holding the Senate while losing the House in the next midterm elections.
(Source：CoinDesk)