Why Trump’s Trade Deal With India Could Move Crypto Markets This Week
A potential US-India trade deal and the resolution of the US government shutdown could inject significant liquidity, positively impacting Bitcoin and crypto markets.Summary
The crypto market faces a pivotal week due to two converging macro events: a potential US-India trade deal and the nearing resolution of the US government shutdown. Donald Trump stated the US is close to a trade agreement with India, which reportedly includes tariff reductions (from 50% to 15-16%) and India curbing Russian oil imports. This deal could ease global trade uncertainty and strengthen emerging-market currencies, which are positive signals for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Simultaneously, the US Senate advanced a bipartisan funding bill that could end the six-week government shutdown by mid-to-late November. The shutdown froze over $850 billion in the Treasury General Account (TGA), draining about 8% of dollar liquidity. Once reopened, the Treasury is expected to spend $250–$350 billion, releasing this locked liquidity back into the financial system.
Crypto has acted as a liquidity barometer, falling alongside liquidity contraction. Analysts anticipate a powerful twin effect if both events materialize: fiscal reactivation injecting liquidity and trade optimism boosting risk appetite—a scenario former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes terms "stealth QE." This constructive macro setup suggests Bitcoin could regain support above $110,000 as the dollar potentially weakens and real yields fall.
(Source：BeInCrypto)