Three Macro Signals Just Flipped, Putting November and December on the Spot
Three key macro signals—stable inflation, temporarily frozen liquidity, and an early business cycle turn—suggest November and December could bring significant market shifts.Summary
Three significant macro signals are currently influencing market expectations for November and December. First, real-time inflation data from Truflation shows prices stabilizing near the Federal Reserve's 2% target, potentially allowing the Fed more room for policy easing, possibly including a December rate cut. Second, market liquidity appears frozen due to the Treasury General Account (TGA) swelling to over $1 trillion during a government shutdown, which has effectively tightened funding; analysts expect this liquidity to surge back into markets once the shutdown resolves, which should be bullish. Third, while the ISM Manufacturing Index remains in contraction territory (below 50), the New Orders component is showing a slight uptick, suggesting the weakest point of the business cycle might be passing. These nuanced signals—stable inflation, temporarily constrained liquidity, and nascent manufacturing improvement—suggest that the resolution of the government shutdown could trigger notable shifts in both traditional and crypto markets.
(Source：BeInCrypto)