Bitcoin at critical test: If BTC breaks above $106k, bear market could be postponed

Bitcoin is currently testing the critical $106,400 pivot point, which has historically dictated the direction of the current cycle's rallies and pullbacks. Acceptance above this level typically unlocks the next price shelf, targeting $114k to $120k, provided there is confirmation from sustained ETF inflows (a 5- to 10-day streak) and a shift in options skew toward calls.

Conversely, rejection at $106.4k suggests the bear market framework, which began at a peak near $126k, remains in control, potentially leading to a retest of $100k and the high-$90,000s. The burden of proof currently rests on fresh demand arriving via consistent ETF creation streaks and a flip in derivatives positioning away from put dominance.

If the $106,400 level is reclaimed with confirming flow data and a hold above $126,272, the market structure could shift significantly, opening the path toward higher nodes. However, without these structural confirmations, rallies are viewed as distribution opportunities, keeping the market range-bound or biased lower.

(Source：CryptoSlate)