Cathie Wood revises Bitcoin forecast as stablecoins gain ground

Ark Investment Management, led by Cathie Wood, has revised its 2030 Bitcoin bull case from $1.5 million to $1.2 million, attributing the adjustment to the increasing role of stablecoins in payments and as a dollar proxy, particularly in emerging markets. While still anticipating substantial Bitcoin adoption, the firm acknowledges that stablecoins are “usurping” a portion of the market Bitcoin was expected to capture. This revision is also influenced by shifts in risk-free rates and the maturation of Bitcoin’s institutional infrastructure through ETFs. The growth of the stablecoin market, exceeding $300 billion, and their increasing holdings of US Treasury bills are impacting front-end yields and providing a competitive alternative to Bitcoin as a non-sovereign savings vehicle. Furthermore, the performance of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with over $135 billion in assets under management, demonstrates a more mature market structure where Bitcoin’s price is increasingly correlated with macroeconomic factors like interest rates and volatility, rather than solely relying on a “monetary revolution” narrative. The $300,000 reduction reflects a contraction in Bitcoin’s total addressable market due to stablecoins and a higher bar for non-yielding assets in a world of rising yields.

(Source：CryptoSlate)