Bitcoin is getting too expensive to mine profitably: What breaks first – hashrate, UX, or ideology?

Bitcoin miners, the overlooked backbone of the network, are struggling as block rewards decrease and energy costs rise, forcing them to diversify into areas like AI hosting and energy arbitrage to maintain operations. With the block subsidy at 3.125 BTC, transaction fees are now critical for miner revenue and network security, yet fee demand is volatile, collapsing to near-historic lows after the initial Runes spike. Current hashprice derivatives suggest constrained near-term revenue, with energy costs potentially eroding thin profit margins for modern mining fleets. The article frames security budget possibilities across three fee regimes (quiet, moderate, peak), showing how fees significantly impact daily revenue and the cost floor for a 51% attack, which ranges from millions per hour (OPEX floor) to billions in hardware (CAPEX bar). Protocol improvements like Bitcoin Core v28's package relay and ephemeral anchors aim to create a more reliable fee floor by improving fee bumping and transaction confirmation, potentially stabilizing miner economics without relying solely on speculative mania. The near-term outlook suggests moderate fees are necessary to keep marginal fleets operational while these policy improvements are adopted.

(Source：CryptoSlate)