Bitcoin’s (BTC) Fair Value Is $170K, JPMorgan Argues in Gold-Based Model
JPMorgan analysts project Bitcoin's fair value could reach $170,000 within a year based on a model comparing its private investment base to gold.Summary
JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $170,000 in the next six to twelve months, suggesting it is currently undervalued relative to gold.
The bank's projection stems from a gold-based model where Bitcoin is assumed to consume 1.8 times more risk capital than gold. Based on $6.2 trillion in private gold investment (ETFs, bars, coins), Bitcoin's market cap needs to grow by two-thirds from its current level (around $2.1 trillion) to match that exposure, implying a price of $170,000, up from approximately $102,000 at the time of the report.
The analysts noted that the recent deleveraging in crypto derivatives, particularly perpetual futures, is likely over, setting the stage for renewed upside. Furthermore, with gold volatility rising, Bitcoin may increasingly become the preferred hedge for equity risk, making it more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis compared to gold purchases by central banks and retail buyers.
(Source：CoinDesk)