Jerome Powell and the Fed Has New Bearish Jobs Data to Mull
Challenger job cuts surged to a 20-year high in October, presenting a major red flag for the labor market that the Fed must consider.Summary
Due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, official economic statistics like the Nonfarm Payrolls Report are unavailable, elevating the importance of alternative data like the Challenger job cuts report. This report showed 153,074 layoffs in October, nearly triple the previous year's figure and the highest October print since 2003, attributed to factors like AI adoption and rising costs causing belt-tightening. Year-to-date job cuts have surpassed 1 million, the highest since 2020. This weak employment data contrasts with the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance, where Chairman Jerome Powell suggested markets were wrong to anticipate a December rate cut, implying the labor market was strong. The shocking Challenger data now puts the ball in the Fed's court, as markets react by increasing odds of a December rate cut despite the Fed's recent rhetoric.
(Source：CoinDesk)