Prediction markets are evolving into broader information trading venues: Bernstein

According to Bernstein analysts, prediction platforms are transforming into broader information trading venues, fueled by increasing regulatory clarity, institutional investment, tokenization, and deeper integration with retail brokerages and crypto markets. Demand is expanding beyond politics and sports into economics, culture, and finance. The primary competition is between Kalshi, which adopted a regulation-first approach and is now expanding globally via crypto integrations, and Polymarket, a decentralized platform that recently surpassed Kalshi in monthly volume before Kalshi took the lead again in September. Both platforms have secured significant funding, with Kalshi raising $300 million and Polymarket securing a $2 billion investment from ICE. Furthermore, major players like Robinhood, which acts as Kalshi's anchor partner, and Coinbase are integrating prediction markets, signaling mainstream adoption. However, Bernstein cautions that risks remain, including shallow liquidity, UX complexities, and narrow regulatory approvals, which might keep the product niche unless event contracts are normalized for wider audiences.

(Source：The Block)