Bitcoin will be hacked in 2 years… and other quantum resistant marketing lies

Quantum countdown websites, like The Quantum Doom Clock, suggest a cryptographically relevant quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin's ECC could arrive within two to three years, driven by optimistic assumptions about qubit scaling and error rates. This timeline is presented alongside marketing for post-quantum tooling. However, this aggressive projection contrasts sharply with the timelines set by government standards bodies, such as the US NSA's CNSA 2.0 guidance, which recommends completing post-quantum transitions by 2035. Laboratory progress, while real, has not yet demonstrated the necessary scale, coherence, and low-error logical gates required for Bitcoin-breaking parameters, which resource studies estimate may require millions of physical qubits.

For Bitcoin, the immediate risk involves on-chain exposure of public keys (e.g., in P2PK or reused P2PKH addresses), rather than attacks against SHA-256. While advocates estimate over 6 million BTC are in quantum-exposed outputs, migration is feasible using finalized NIST standards (FIPS-203/204). However, implementing post-quantum signatures will significantly increase transaction sizes, potentially raising fees unless paired with aggregation techniques. The divergence between marketing timelines and institutional roadmaps hinges on input assumptions regarding hardware error rates and scaling; conservative estimates place material limits extending timelines into the 2040s or beyond.

The practical risk compass should be anchored by NIST standards, the 2035 migration deadlines, and verifiable lab milestones, not vendor clocks. Wallets can begin testing larger signatures now, and Bitcoin has built-in upgrade paths. The article concludes by noting that if quantum computers break Bitcoin’s cryptography, far more critical legacy systems globally will also be exposed, posing a larger societal risk.

(Source：CryptoSlate)