‘Rotten October’ leaves bitcoin at a crucial inflection point, but macro tailwinds argue against a cycle top: analyst
Despite a 'Rotten October' drop, an analyst sees Bitcoin at an inflection point, arguing macro tailwinds suggest it's a reset, not a cycle top.Summary
Bitcoin experienced a significant drop in October, termed 'Rotten October' by K33, falling 10% in the past week to retest $100,000, its lowest since June. Head of Research Vetle Lunde attributes this decline to constrained liquidity and fear following a massive $20 billion crypto liquidation event on October 10, compounded by uncertainty after the Federal Reserve's rate cut. On-chain data shows long-term holders realizing profits, and ETF flow influence has waned. Lunde views the current market structure as a crucial inflection point, aligning with typical post-liquidation consolidation rather than a new down-cycle, expecting selling pressure to ease for a potential bullish reversal. Despite grim near-term sentiment and underperformance against traditional benchmarks, Lunde maintains a 'patiently bullish' stance, arguing that favorable macro conditions—like expansive monetary policy and increased institutional participation—are inconsistent with a four-year cycle top, suggesting the correction is a prudent buying opportunity for long-term investors.
(Source：The Block)