5 clear signals that will prove if the Bitcoin bull run is still alive
Bitcoin's bull run status depends on ETF flows, derivatives pricing, macro conditions, supply overhangs, and mining economics, despite bullish narratives.Summary
Despite bullish narratives from major players, Bitcoin's price recently fell below the $106,400 pivot point, primarily due to negative spot ETF flows, notably redemptions from BlackRock's IBIT, which turned the daily bid into supply. This mechanical selling pressure was compounded by cooling derivatives markets, where the CME futures premium and perpetual swap funding rates softened, accelerating liquidations. Macro factors, including a rebounding U.S. Dollar Index and restrictive real yields, also tightened global liquidity, weighing on risk assets. Furthermore, persistent supply overhangs from the Mt. Gox distribution timeline and miner monetization incentives post-halving added pressure. The article outlines five key signals to gauge the bull run's health: sustained multi-day ETF creations, broad digital asset fund inflows, rising derivatives basis and funding, a weaker dollar, and stable mining supply pressure. Currently, the market is in a distribution and digest phase until net ETF creations return and the $106,400 level is reclaimed.
(Source：CryptoSlate)