Retail investor 'retreat' to $98.5K: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin dipped to $107,000 as retail investors retreat, with analysts eyeing potential retests of support levels near $101K.Summary
Bitcoin began November with a dip to $107,000, erasing weekend gains as traders anticipate further support retests, despite positive seasonality expectations. Analysts suggest this could be a difficult trading week, with key support identified around $101,150 (the 50-week EMA) and nearby liquidity clusters around $105K-$106K and $112K. Market sentiment remains low, reflected in prediction markets giving only a 60% chance of BTC finishing November above $115,000, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remaining in "fear" territory.
Macro factors show stocks benefiting from US-China trade deal hopes, while crypto lags; Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks has recently broken down. Uncertainty remains regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, although the planned halt of quantitative tightening (QT) might offer some bullish counterweight. Institutional demand, measured by US spot Bitcoin ETF flows, has shown net outflows for three consecutive days, leading to the first time in seven months that net institutional buying has dropped below the daily mined supply, a situation last seen before the April lows.
Crucially, retail investor activity is in retreat, evidenced by a 26.1% drop in active addresses since late October, which limits network activity and may extend market cycles. On-chain analysis suggests Bitcoin is overvalued relative to its network size (NVM Ratio of 2.97), leading one analyst to suggest a potential price drop to as low as $98,500.
(Source：Cointelegraph)