Does Bitcoin Power Law model still work in 2025 after S2F failed?
The Bitcoin Power Law model suggests BTC is currently undervalued, with ETF flows influencing its path within the model's rising channel.Summary
Following the failure of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, the Bitcoin Power Law model, based on a logarithmic fit of price versus time, remains relevant as a location map rather than a precise forecast. The current implementation places Bitcoin's spot price near $109,700, significantly below the fair-value regression of approximately $136,100, but well above the support near $48,300, with resistance near $491,800.
Recent price action, including record ETF inflows followed by outflows, explains why the price is in the channel's middle rather than at an extreme. The model posits that volatility decays over time, causing oscillations around the central curve. The future trajectory depends on external factors: continued strong ETF inflows could push the price toward the upper resistance, while macro tightening or persistent ETF outflows could lead to a retest of the lower rail.
The Power Law approach contrasts with S2F by bounding cycle amplitude without hard-dating outcomes, treating adoption as a power function of time. While it lacks explicit incorporation of drivers like ETF demand, practitioners monitor these factors alongside the rising channel, which serves as directional guardrails for Bitcoin's long-term valuation framework.
(Source：CryptoSlate)