Invisible Lightning: Why exchange channels break a favorite Bitcoin metric
Public Bitcoin Lightning capacity is declining because exchanges and wallets are increasingly using private or custodial channels, masking true network utility.Summary
The Bitcoin Lightning Network's public capacity metric is misleadingly declining because major exchanges (like Coinbase, OKX, Kraken, and Binance) and wallets are routing an increasing volume of payments through private, custodial, or multi-path routes that do not register on public charts. This consolidation, rather than a drop in utility, is driven by exchanges handling more withdrawals and deposits via Lightning, and by protocol upgrades like splicing and dual funding that allow for better liquidity management within existing channels. Furthermore, the upcoming integration of stablecoins like USDt over Lightning via Taproot Assets is expected to increase transaction volume without a proportional increase in publicly visible collateral. While public capacity hovers around 4,132 BTC, scenario planning suggests future capacity will range between 3,000 and 6,500 BTC, depending on stablecoin adoption and regulatory friction, confirming that public capacity is now a lagging and incomplete measure of the network's actual throughput.
(Source：CryptoSlate)