Crypto Sell-Off Shocks Market — Hidden Signal Suggests It’s Not Over
Despite a recent four-day Bitcoin sell-off following the FOMC meeting, on-chain data suggests it was a short-term shakeout, not a long-term conviction loss.Summary
Bitcoin has experienced a four-day price decline, reacting negatively to recent news, particularly the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting which hinted against a December rate cut. Analysts characterize this drop as a textbook "sell the news" event driven by short-term traders. On-chain data from Binance showed a large inflow of over 10,000 BTC from addresses holding coins for less than 24 hours, which is indicative of "hot money" liquidating positions. Conversely, inflows from Long-Term Holders (coins held 6+ months) were negligible, leading analysts to conclude it was a shakeout of "weak hands" and that the underlying market structure remains strong.
Further supporting this view, Glassnode data shows that Unrealized Loss is currently only about 1.3% of Bitcoin's market cap. Historically, the start of a severe crypto winter is preceded by a much larger surge in Unrealized Loss, such as the approximately 20% seen before the 2022 bear market intensified. Since current unrealized losses are minor compared to historical bear market indicators, the signal suggests the current downturn is not the end of the bull run.
(Source：BeInCrypto)