Are Bitcoin Price Models Still a Reliable Guide for Investors in 2025?
Bitcoin price models like Stock-to-Flow are questioned as a maturing market and institutional demand challenge their historical assumptions.Summary
The article examines the reliability of popular Bitcoin valuation models, particularly the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which currently projects BTC could reach $222,000 by 2026 based on scarcity.
However, André Dragosch, Head of Research for Europe at Bitwise, advises caution, noting the S2F model has statistical flaws and excludes crucial demand-side drivers like institutional adoption via ETFs, which now outweigh the supply reduction from the latest halving by over seven times.
Dragsosch also reviewed the BAERM model (estimating $173,000 by end of 2025) and the Power Law model (predicting $2.03 million over ten years). He suggests that the shift in market structure since early 2024, characterized by institutional buying, challenges the diminishing returns hypothesis of the Power Law and means past post-halving performance patterns may no longer apply, suggesting a need for new paradigms beyond scarcity-focused frameworks.
(Source：BeInCrypto)