Is the ISM Losing Its Power — or Pointing to a 2026 Bitcoin Supercycle?
Macro analysts are debating the ISM PMI's predictive power, which could suggest Bitcoin's bull market extends into 2026.Summary
A significant debate is occurring among macro analysts regarding the credibility of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) as a leading economic indicator. CFA Julien Bittel argues that traditional metrics like the ISM are downstream of financial conditions, favoring his firm's proprietary index which signaled recovery earlier. Conversely, Henrik Zeberg cautions against relying solely on survey-based indicators like the ISM, noting past instances where it signaled recession without one occurring.
This disagreement is relevant to the crypto market because the ISM has historically correlated with Bitcoin cycle tops, a concept popularized by Raoul Pal. Crypto analysts like Colin Talks Crypto and Lark Davis suggest that the ISM's prolonged contraction phase might indicate that the current Bitcoin bull market will extend beyond the expected Q4 2025 peak, potentially peaking mid-2026 if the historical correlation holds true. This suggests a longer, more gradual expansion phase for Bitcoin, challenging conventional cycle predictions.
(Source：BeInCrypto)