Why the Bitcoin Price May Be Decoupling From Its Four-Year Cycle

The article investigates whether Bitcoin's price is breaking away from its historical four-year cycle, noting that the current cycle has already exceeded the duration of the previous two peaks. The traditional cycle driver, the halving event, appears to have a diminishing impact because the marginal supply reduction is now easily absorbed by institutional demand, such as ETFs, as circulating supply nears its 21 million cap. Instead, the analysis suggests Bitcoin's price movements are now more closely tied to global liquidity cycles, specifically the year-on-year growth of Global M2 money supply, which historically aligns with Bitcoin bottoms. Furthermore, an inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY) suggests that dollar weakness precedes Bitcoin bull markets. The potential end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening, hinted at by Jerome Powell, could signal renewed quantitative easing, which historically fuels major upward moves in risk assets like Bitcoin. The conclusion is that the four-year cycle may have evolved, driven by macro capital flows rather than just programmed scarcity, meaning Bitcoin still has room to run if global liquidity expands.

(Source：Bitcoin Magazine)